Will asked me yesterday what I thought of our new female communist prime minister [1]. The current facts on the ground are that the second, third and fourth party in parliament made a coalition against the party that got the most votes. This is a consequence of having a proportional electoral system: Something I did not vote for in two referendums on the issue. But then, I did not vote for these parties.

Labour followed the same electoral pattern as the Liberals did. Find a young, pretty person and make them the leader of the opposition. Be relentlessly progressive. Then betray whomever you need to so you can gain power.

Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s new prime minister, has brought Labour back to power after nearly a decade in the wilderness. She became party leader only seven weeks before last month’s general election, and instantly transformed the party’s prospects – only to have the lead she quickly established beaten back in the final days of the campaign by a brutal National party attack on her tax policies. In the end, Labour won 37% of the vote, National 44%, but it was Ms Ardern rather than the National leader Bill English who managed to construct a governing coalition that stretches from the populist New Zealand First party to the Greens, who, for the promise of a climate change commission and more money for the environment, are committed to a confidence-and-supply arrangement – supporting Labour budgets and backing it on confidence motions. Now she has been sworn in, the country’s youngest prime minister in 150 years and its third female leader since 1997.

Labour campaigned to reduce child poverty, build more affordable homes, make university free and every river swimmable: so far, so Labour. But she also committed to slow the rate of immigration from 50,000 to 30,000 a year and ensure that employers looked for New Zealand workers before they brought in migrants – even though employment rates are high, and unemployment low and forecast to stay that way. Her first move in power was equally populist: she announced plans to ban foreigners from buying existing homes: New Zealand real estate has become a priority item on the global super-rich’s shopping list, not only for buyers from China and the rest of Asia but for Americans looking for investments secure from the consequences of a Trump presidency – what the New Yorker called Doomsday prep. The discovery that the PayPal founder and Trump supporter Peter Thiel had been given New Zealand citizenship and then bought a £4.5m property on the ultra-desirable Lake Wanaka provoked a media storm, but although Auckland house prices have rocketed to an average price of over NZ$1m, it is not obvious that banning foreign buyers will do much to free up housing for New Zealanders at the affordable end of the market.

It is worth noting that Adern is not married, childless, and managed to be on the front page of the Women’s Day magazine as a priority after she cobbled together a coalition. She has no stake in the future: she talks about wanting children but her actions — she is now 37 and her window of fertility is closing — belie her rhetoric.

Her partner is a television person (he fronts a show about fishing) and the press love her, in the way they did not love either Bill English, the PM with thirty years time in the parliamentary trenches, or Andrew Little (who Ardern replaced) who had twenty years of union work and ten years of parliament. We now have a prime minister who has no ministerial experience. I think Winston Peters chose her because he could ram his nationalist ideas on immigration through — he is the most skilled politician in NZ.

The negotiations showed that National was entitled and out of touch (a bit like the Canadian Tories) and that the Greens cannot organize a drink in a brewery. The NZ Herald, which now completely converged and the purveyor of progressive Pravda notes that the commencement of her government is the beginning of the next campaign, the next revolution.

If the signing of the prime ministerial warrant on Thursday was the full-stop on the 2017 election, Jacinda Ardern’s triumphant return to Parliament after it signalled the start of the perpetual campaign to 2020.

The band stopped playing while Ardern’s Cabinet stood behind her and she addressed the crowd about being a leader for all New Zealanders, about improving wages, healthcare and the environment and being an empathetic Government.

She occasionally looked down at a barely visible small post-it note in her hands which could have contained only three or four key words as mental prompts.

There is nothing wrong with that. She is an accomplished debater. Despite the informality of the event, it was highly planned. It was reassuring to see Ardern was leaving nothing to chance.

No one could remember whether John Key had received such a rapturous public welcome when he took over in 2008, which suggests he didn’t.

But Key was less of a celebrity at that stage of his leadership, it was the middle of the global financial crisis and the sun may not have been shining as brightly as it was in Wellington on Thursday.

Thursday’s show ended with chocolate box scenes of a couple of gorgeous nieces walking hand-in- hand with Aunty Cindy and Uncle Clarke Gayford up Parliament steps.

It was yet another amazing performance from Jacinda Ardern since being elevated to the top job by Winston Peters.

There has been a series of big decisions and announcements, including forming the Cabinet, finalising the cross party deals, taking a call from Donald Trump, speaking to the Council of Trade Unions, the swearing-in, hold the first cabinet and at least five press conferences.

She has not put a foot wrong. She has made it look easy.

The reaction around Casa Weka has been one of horror. The extended family include people with whom I disagree, who are disgusted that Labour lost integrity in the negotiations with NZ first. The government is unstable: you have a paleo right nationalist with a socialist party and social democrats led by a socialist. The Socialists (Greens, if you don’t know the code) hate the nationalists (NZ first). They have to now work together for three years.

I give them two.

My predictions.

1. The dollar will lose value. This will initially help our export companies, agriculture and forestry. It will help tourism.
2. However, the level of uncertainty (There has already been a new tax on fuel in our biggest city mooted) means that people will not spend. The amount of economic activity will diminish. We will slide into a recession, probably precipitated by loss of home values — which is Labour policy
3. The planned increase in minimum wage will increas unemployment
4. There will be tax increases not cuts (see above)
5. Within a year, the Christians will be used as a useful scapegoat for problems
6. We will have hate speech legislation (we do not at present)
7. We will have net emigration — Kiwis will go to Australia for work, leaving the young, old and unemployable in NZ
8. The government will spend the surplus and go into considerable debt, partcularly in 2020 when they will bribe the electorate to bring in another term and further tax increases

We are battening down. The priority is paying down debt, getting multiple sources of income, and keeping our options open. While I can, I will do what I can to influence my nation and society for good. But that may lead to me being silenced. But we sowed the wind, we are reaping the whirlwind.

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1. She was the international chair of Young Socailists, sining the Internationale. Communist, but lightly held: she now owns a house.