There have been thousands of aftershocks over the last few days. It appears that the earthquake is a complex event involving multiple faults. The Gon Noet people (who grade the quake at 7.5, not 7.8) note:

Rapid field reconnaissance indicates that multiple faults have ruptured:

• Kekerengu Fault at the coast – appears to have had up to 10m of slip
• Newly identified fault at Waipapa Bay
• Hope Fault – seaward segment – minor movement
• Hundalee Fault

In the simplest case an earthquake is a rupture on a single fault plane.

What we are finding in New Zealand is that quite a few of our larger earthquakes involve jumping from rupture on one plane to another in a complex sequence. We first saw that with the Darfield Sept 2010 EQ where multiple segments ruptured together as a single earthquake. We appear to have seen this again overnight.

In terms of what might happen next: The scenarios provide an overview of how we see this earthquake sequence evolving over the next few days to one month. What is on the web page is our best information that we have to hand at the moment. As our science information flows in over the next few days we expect that information may evolve.

The trouble is that the main transport link from Wellington and the North Island runs through there. All freight is going to have to be diverted to Christchurch or Dunedin. The rail may never be built, and the ferries may run to the centre of the island. Stephen Franks notes that rebuilding the road is simply not economic.

Coastal shipping should have been getting much more of NZ’s long distance heavy freight. Shipping was long strangled by government fears of enforcing laws against maritime union thuggery, theft and anti-competitive conspiracy. Since union power waned shipping had been hamstrung by the unfair propping up of Kiwirail after Michael Cullen’s rescue of Toll Holdings. Political fear of challenging irrational rail sentiment has meant wasting $7k per household on Kiwirail since. The weird left political love for rail has been reinforced by understandable popular dislike of truck dominated roads.

Now that a sea link to Lyttelton will be needed for 6 months minimum, shippers will get used to the schedules, and Govt might have the courage to not waste capital restoring the uneconomic Picton to Christchurch rail leg.

Indeed shipping direct from Auckland and Tauranga to Christchurch should suit many who distribute nationwide.

Other experiments could be freed from unfair competition.
The proposed Wanganui to Nelson service could use the fast ferries eliminated by Sounds nimbyism.
We could then use much more of the Sounds for what God intended – mussel and salmon farms.

Stephen does not go far enough. Note that blobs on the map in the north. That is the capital, which has also been cut off. It would make more sense to have this somewhere geologically stable: of the four main centres the best bet neither Christchurch (which was flattened five years ago) or Wellington, it is Auckland or Dunedin.

But I Like Auckland and Hamilton, and being the capital is not a good thing. I therefore suggest that Parliament move to Hamilton. This will remind he Maori that they lost the Land Wars, be close to the Maori King, and the climate is damp, foggy and depression, making it a suitable punishment station for high level civil servants.

But enough on those issues. New Zealand is a Monarchy, and the Queen has sent her wishes.

“Prince Phillip and I were shocked to hear news of the severe earthquakes that struck on Monday. I send my condolences to the families of those who were killed and the people whose homes and businesses have been affected. Our thoughts are with you at this time.”

The centre of New Zealand is pretty stuffed. Meetings are cancelled, teaching shifted, flights moved around. We will recover. But we may need to think about what we rebuild.