Notes from OZ, and debt.

This is the second trip to Australia in a row: in the last two weeks I have spent as much time flying to and from Australia or in Australia as I have spent at home. And this trip in Adelaide the signs of a depression are there. Shops are closed. There are more buskers. There are more discount shops where they ought not to be, and the conversation at the meeting was how little dollars were available to fund research.

The coffee shop owner, when he found I was from the South Island, commented that Australians are moving to New Zealand to be involved in the rebuild of Christchurch, for there are jobs going in there. Then he recounted that two car manufacturers are closing in Adelaide, and like Dunedin it is becoming a university town.


Treasurer Joe Hockey warned Australians
they face falling living standards without tough reform after official ­figures showed the economy suffered its worst income shock since the ­financial crisis five years ago.

Speaking after September quarter national accounts confirmed individuals, businesses and the government are in the grip of an “income recession” caused by plunging commodity prices and stagnant wages, Mr Hockey said “we can’t take [another] decade of growth for granted”.

He reinforced the Reserve Bank of Australia’s attempt this week to put renewed downward pressure on the dollar, saying global capital inflows were keeping the currency too high for Australian businesses.

“We need the Aussie dollar to come down, that’s a fundamental point,” he told The Australian Financial Review.

“A lower dollar would cushion the impact of the falling terms of trade.”

The remarks echo Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens’ statement on Tuesday that a lower dollar is now “needed”, which – if the currency doesn’t decline – could suggest cuts in the official interest rate are more likely.

Well, the reason the income for Australia is down is because the Chinese cannot buy any more coal, bauxite or iron ore: their economy is cracking. In the meantime, the USA remains in what is effectively a depression. Given the current union rules, this makes it very hard for younger people to get a start within the economy.

Now, you may consider that it’s hypocritical that I comment on this. I’m not an Australian, I have tenure, and I live in a university town — with a university that can still attract foreign students (Top 250 in the world and fairly cheap).

True. I choose to live in a bubble, in a town which is affordable: I choose not to live in a big city. And I can support my sons through university.

Despite a divorce. But most parents cannot. So, for what it is worth, here is some advice.

  • Stay away from debt. The exception in NZ, where student loans ae interest-free, but you will still have to pay them back. If you have to go to school (because you are going to get into medical school or engineering school) try to get someone else to pay for it. Parents if they can. The Government or Army maybe:  you will be bonded, but you will be given responsibility.  If you get a degree, it should be in something where you can make a living: if you love music, your ability to teach music is more important than your PhD in musicology.
  • Get a trade. Avoid university. Particularly if you are a man, and particularly if you have other options. A trade is a far better option for 80 — 90% of the population. There are about one in twenty who are natural scholars — I happen to be one of them. But even then, I completed a fairly long apprenticeship style training in a medical specaility before getting an advanced research degree.
  • Do not get that credit card. Now, I have cards, but I generally discipline myself to pay them off every month. If you cannot do this, freeze them — literally make a popiscle and put them inside them. This is not a time for debtd.
  • Have more than one job. Ideally, one of these should be working for yourself. Again I don’t do that: I work for a university that contracts my time to a hospital. You do not know which job will fail.
  • Stay healthy and fit. You do not need a gym: you need a coach, a floor, and limited equipment to remain fit. Keep fairly skinny — it is far better to be thin and wear clean, cheap clothes than be fat and wear expensive ones. (As a fat man, I know that almost all my clothing options are expensive, and getting thin is hard work. Far better not to get fat).
  • Limit eating out. Home cooked food is generally healtheir, cheaper and quicker to make.
  • Do not panic. Most collapses lead to a breakdown in morals and social cohension, a loss of official jobs, and a lowering of the standard of living. People continue to live. Even after a big disaster you do not need food and water for months: the issues are much more sanitation and power.

There is a cycle in the economy: we go from periods of plenty to periods of poverty about every seven to ten years. The trick is to live within your means regardless of income. One needs to be particularly aware of the emotional spending — including Christmas, and particularly when times are hard.

They have been such in NZ: at present they are not. But my country relies on there being enough people in the world who want milk, meat, wool and Middle-Earth. And we are still poorer, when doing well, than Australia in recession.