I am not an active investor. I do own a share (AIRNZ) but most of my savings are in the university pension funds. Which could be taken from me — and you — by executive fiat.

But this was in my Linkedin box, and it feels wrong.

The first two weeks of the year have been the worst ever for US stock indexes. Indexes are now in correction territory for the second time in six months and the big swings are testing every investor’s internal fortitude and begging the question: will the correction lead to the first bear market in nearly seven years? Understandably, this period may cause a bit of déjà vu all over again, but the current situation is not like 2008 for many reasons. The first of which is that there is no financial crisis brewing and the second is that US economy, while not strong, is still growing by about 2-2.5 percent annually.

Although some investors may be tempted to sell, they do so at their own peril. Market timing requires you to make two precise decisions, when to sell and then when to buy back in, something that is nearly impossible. The data show that when investors react, they generally make the wrong decision, which explains why the average investor has earned half of what they would have earned by buying and holding an S&P index fund.

The best way to avoid falling into the trap of letting your emotions dictate your investment decisions is to remember that you’re a long-term investor, who doesn’t have all of your eggs in one basket. Try to adhere to a diversified portfolio strategy, based on your goals, risk tolerance and time horizon — one that is not reactive to short-term market conditions, because over the long term, it works. It’s not easy to do, but sometimes the best action is NO ACTION.

My take on this.

1. We live in interesting times. Europe is imploding under the double pressure of a baby strike and the introduction of a massive number of young, misogynistic, unqualified males, generally Muslim. This is not functional, or good for the health of society, and the markets will reflect that
2. It is the interests of both the executive boards of companies (who must report to the stock market) and the government to produced growth, if not real, by accounting tricks. This means that the market mistrusts the official figures
3. We are seeing the unfolding of an asset bubble: in equities, and in property. The Boomers are needing to sell up as they get into the 70s and 80s and need smaller supported flats or hospital beds. And they younger generations don’t have as much money. A property crash is never that good when you are in it, but (at least in NZ, Australia and Canada) houses are too expensive for young couples, and this is wrong
4. There is little economic growth. Shipping has basically stopped. People are not spending. The very rich are much richer, but the average person is more in debt. We are in a long depression, and the deflation has been masked by debasing the currency

It is too late to sell: the smart money left the stock market six months ago. It is not yet time to buy: wait for the blood to stop flowing on the streets.

And doing nothing… in a storm, is not wise either. I am not a good investor, but I smell the stench of the narrative, and the language of the marketer.