There are many people banking on the goodwill of the USA, and the West. Even at war. Even in a war to the knife. That we will not do what it takes to win.
Now, I am less sure. A New Zealand General ordered Monte Cassino to be flattened, regardless of culture. There were plenty of Kiwis flying to Dresden under Bomber Harris. And the rules we have are written by weenies who are a luxury you do not have in a total war.
There is not the will in the West to wage unrestricted war anymore. And I for one am not sure that will can be found in time to save us. To do what the article suggests we have to be prepared to level a town with bombs and artillery if we take fire from it. We have to be willing to kill 50 civilians to kill one ISIS member. We have to be willing to kill whole tribes and clans because one member joined ISIS. We have to be ready to and conduct massive reprisals for any violation of the Laws of War. Sadly we are not ready to do any of that. So if by chance the Idiot in Chief actually put boots on the ground, that effort would be doomed to failure, because of the ROEs the troops would be saddled with.
The question has to be are we at war. The answer would be, yes. But not with a nation-state: if I understand the idea of Fourth Generation War correctly, we are war with a culture, and the culture is not a nation. It is a sense of despair. It blames the West for failure, and chooses not to go out of history without taking other groups with them.
The population in the Arab countries is dropping. They are getting poorer, even the oil-producing states. Their theocracies corrupt from within. This was predicted a decade ago.
And, demographic decay coupled with poverty is yielding a third problem. Beneath the façade of theocracy is social rot. Young women, even educated ones, are increasingly selling themselves as a means to make money and escape unemployment: “90% of Tehran’s prostitutes have passed the university entrance exam.” Others, five million by one estimate, use drugs. Stiff penalties, “a third conviction for alcohol possession merits the death penalty,” are not deterring this behavior. It seems that “on its own terms, Iran’s Islamist experiment has failed.”
The oil poor nations of Arab Spring fame are arguably in worse shape. Decades of economic underdevelopment, particularly in agriculture, have left these states dependent on importing half of their caloric consumption. The result is a merciless subjection to market volatility. Indeed, one trigger for the uprisings was the doubling of the price of wheat after a 2.4% drop in supply in 2009 and 2010. The reason for the price spike is cold economics: the increased wealth of Asian consumers has made food prices more inelastic. Stated succinctly, “Chinese and Indian demand has priced food staples out of the Arab budget.” Of course, an arguably bigger driver of nosebleed food prices is not scarcity, or rising demand from India and China, but the global run on paper currencies driven by policies in the U.S. to cheapen the dollar since 2001.
Egypt is a microcosm of the economic disaster wrought by the Arab Spring. Despite half the population living on two dollars a day, foreign aid and revenue from tourism kept Egypt afloat under Mubarak. But since the revolution in 2011, the economy has imploded. Unemployment has soared as key industries shrivel, and capital flight is causing foreign exchange reserves to plummet. And, the latter is lethal. Egypt, with five percent arable land and eighty million souls, is running out of money to buy bread. The prospective starvation may become “a catastrophe of, well, biblical proportions.”
But the demographic and economic numbers are just that, numbers. They do not identify the cataclysm’s cause, which Goldman claims is philosophical. Falling fertility is symptomatic of a society encountering modernity; education, urbanization, and women’s emancipation. The onset of modernity has already begun in the Muslim world as demonstrated by the impact of literacy, particularly female literacy, on its birthrates.
Increasing education is negatively correlated with decreasing fertility. This is a fact that Iran’s mullahs are painfully learning. Before his overthrow, the Shah launched a program to modernize Iran by eradicating illiteracy. The program was a smashing success. Iran now has literate and highly educated women with respect to the rest of the Muslim world. The result is “university-educated Iranian women had a fertility rate of 1.3.” It appears that Persian females are voting against the theocrats with their womb.
Spengler was incorrect. The Arab is not stupid. He has learned from the Pakistani: the only way to survive modernity is to subvert the nation-state. If you cannot survive in Arabia or Pakistan or Africa — in places which, in general, import food, Egypt included — leave. Go find a social welfare state. Have lots of children because lots of children mean greater benefits.
It is far, far, better to live in the underclass in the West than it is to struggle in the Arab world. For the places within the house of Islam that are growing and economic powerhouses have minorities that do the heavy lifting — primarily the overseas Chinese or the Indians — one group considers you an evangelical mission field, as they generally have left Buddha behind and meld the Tao with Christianity, while the other consider you a caste to be managed — are not seen by the Salafi or the Arab as places to emulate.
So the tactic was to leave. Arabia and the Middle East has too many people. Export your young men: if not to war, to the West, where they can drag in the family. Take your habits and your anger with you. Destroy the West from within, before it destroys you. Some people, such as Mark Steyn, saw this. They argued it would destroy Europe. They were ignored.
So the Wahabites decided, in their Salafist (I am using the terms interchangeably, and as insults) stupidity, that the best thing to do was kill random people because that would ensure that the host nations would accept the millions of unemployable young men that the host nations could no longer feed. Because the Islamic must be the most blessed people: and they must rule. Because Mohammed.
Crap tactics. People are waking up. The sarcasm meter has hit 12.
Even as I type this, Democrats in America are gnashing their teeth in despair as states continue to announce they will not accept refugees. I know this will sound like a sensible approach to most Breitbart readers. After all, we know most the Syrian refugees are men of fighting age, we know refugees were involved in the Paris attacks, and we know plenty of these guys aren’t even Syrian.
(cut Milo’s fantasies about Muslim men. This site should be PG. I think)
Bleeding-heart liberals in the media keep telling us we should open our hearts to these poor souls. So let’s do it. These facilities will collectively be called Milo’s Home for Wayward Jihadis. We will include all the creature comforts of home, such as a halal kitchen, a basement shooting range and living quarters equipped with a variety of whips, bats and ropes with which our young bucks can subdue local white girls.
The great thing is we won’t need to struggle to find the appropriate locations to house our Yiannopoulos urban warfare achievers: just listen for where liberals are crying loudest for them to be let into America. I say charity starts at home–their homes, specifically.
Surely Rachel Maddow, Sally Kohn and other Mother Gaia figures from the American political Left will jump at the chance to inject some vibrant multiculturalism into their local communities? Just don’t let the kids out after dark unsupervised, obviously. Those western school uniforms can be unacceptably suggestive.
We might need several Milo’s Homes in Manhattan, of course, so our naughty boys can visit the UN whenever necessary, and maybe Brooklyn, where the hipsters live. They will have to find a place in New York’s overburdened school system, which may be easier since young Muslim men show an explosively enthusiastic aptitude for basic chemistry.
Well, that will not happen. The elite want to virtue signal, but will ensure that their children are not harmed. That is for the peasants.
But push the peasants far enough, and there will not merely be blood, but war, total war, war unremitting. There is a dark side to the human species, and the West industrialized killing a century ago.
And in those fights, demographics matter. The Black population in the USA is 15%: if there is a race war they will lose. The Maori population in NZ is 15%: the same argument applies. There are about 2 billion Christians and 1.5 billion Muslims in the world — and 1 billion who are secular. Now, the Christians are becoming more religious (those left) and the Muslims more… but in a war, to the knife, there are more men who could wear the Cross than the Crescent.
So, to any Islamists who soil themselves reading the blog of a Reformed Christian (a group who has had to fight for their faith for centuries) hear this: in a war to the knife you will bleed your enemy, but you will end up defeated. For you lack the manpower, and you lack the technology. Much of the world may end up in ruins, but Europe has been rebuilt from Ruins before.
If you are lucky, you may end up with this.
Five: thanks to the criminal acts of the communist regime, which aimed to entrench itself in permanent power by importing a new people, possession of a French passport issued by the Sixth Republic is not proof of French citizenship. Anyone holding a French passport, but without four great-grandparents born in France, must reapply for citizenship in the New French State.
Applications are evaluated by the police. Anyone both assimilated and civilized, without regard to race, is accepted. Everyone else is deported, or interned if Globomerica will not accept them. Internment is not a punishment and will not become one, but France is a sovereign nation and no one colonizes her.
The Reverend Malthus argued, before Darwin, that there would be starvation and war when a people could not feed themselves. He was wrong: for agricultural technology improved, as did the ability to ship food, as England approached that population. An empire can feed itself. A hegemony can feed itself. A rich nation can feed itself. If you are none of the above, choose not war. For you will lose, and be left with less than nothing.
And finally, do not rely on the guilt or charity of a corrupt elite. Such groups never survive a major conflict in the West: instead they are first to meet the wall, guillotine, or hangman. And once the traitors are killed, the now empowered peasants start seeking revenge.
It is far better to be elsewhere.
The blue states (and the SJW) are louder, but there are more red states, and they have more backbone. Y’all can yell about “big meaniepantses” but that’s not going to change policy. (Scott has an interesting thread up in regards to this convo, fwiw).
Locally, blue is conservative and Red for the socialists. But accepting what you say… the left are, at this time, a creature of cities: both the elite in their leafy suburbs and the underclass in the ghetto.
If I was a Persian or Arab, I would despair: if an Arab or Persian Christian I would be shaking the dust off my feet and leaving. This is going to be a tragedy. And (reflecting on what LG has said) we are culpable in that we let this happen.
But then I trust the CIA to never to do the correct thing less frequently than the French.
Agree with you that Scott’s blog has interesting comments on the morality of this all.
Speaking of country/city, this was an excellent article: http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-1101-hanson-rural-urban-divide-20151101-story.html
Good article but the demolition of Cassino and Dresden are not the best examples to quote really because they didn’t achieve much – brutal for the sake of brutality is not really smart in my view. Dresden was controversial amongst bomber crews even at the time and at least one admits in a book to deliberately missing the city. Germany lost the war because she ran out of resources like ammo, soldiers and fuel and the ability to move them about. Islam would be the same if we closed ranks and borders against them – you’d hardly have to fire a shot. I’m not sure I’d like what they would then do to each other but it would be them against them so not my guilt.
Germany lost because Hilter invaded Russia and the US Carrier Fleet wasn’t at Pearl. (Nor did they hit the fuel depot, which was probably the more valuable target, though there are reasons they didn’t.) While Historical study now shows that the end result was likely inevitable by Fall 1942, the winepress of Total War was going to require millions of lives to see itself out.
I don’t worry about war with Muslim armies , as those haven’t been a worry (minus the Turks) since the Mongols had their way with Arabia and ended the “Islamic Golden Age”. (Only golden if you were in the rule families, more accurately) What I worry about is allowing the evil to infest the rest of the World and, specifically, our home countries.
Though if I do have one worry, it’s not about the Muslims but our currently Godless Anti-Christian elites. It was those same Godless, Anti-Christians that gave us the Camps, the Gulag and the Great Leap Forward. The ability to slaughter with industrial efficiency, perfected by the West, is what I do worry about. Because Fools lash out; the Wise prepare. And we are “lead” by Fools.
Well, we are led by fools. For it is the end of a moral cycle, and the progressive experiment bought in by the youth of 1968 has been found more than wanting.
Used because NZ servicemen were documented to participate, and that is where I come from. I could have used other examples, agreed.
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