To start this, let us quote William Briggs, because it is good for you all to remember that an association is causation: that case control studies suggest but do not prove such, and the only way to show something does matter is to do cohort studies. Which we are doing.

But too slowly for those who would ban and regulate. Please note that I don’t see a reason to ban vaping. It would be better than walking through a cloud of smoke ten meters from the front door of any hospital as those emphysemics currently admitted satisfy their craving for nicotine.

The story in brief: there was weak statistical evidence that second-hand smoked caused heart disease. But weak second-hand evidence provided by statistics cannot discern cause. The evidence that was once thought strong was gradually whittled down until it became clear that second-hand smoke—such as a man smoking a cigar on a windy beach—was not going to kill scores of women and children.

Yet puritanical “activists” wanted smoking banned altogether. Most of these tolerant, freedom-loving activists were not on the right of the political spectrum. Consider the same people who wanted to ban “second-hand” cigarette smoke generally supported smoke from other substances. A sort of political tremor and mini-moral panic swept the land and smoking was banned everywhere, even where it couldn’t possibly do any harm, like in parks and beaches. It became so idiotic there was even talk of “third-hand” smoke. Yes, really.

The heady effects of banning—I mean the bureaucratic satisfaction of non-appealable regulations well passed—folks began banning vaping, which produces no second-hand smoke. But it looks like smoking, and appearances count. And once you loose a bureaucracy, nothing but its violent dismantling will cause it to cease regulating.

But consider this: the biggest argument for homophobia is that gay men kill themselves more frequently that their straight peers. What is unsaid is that men kill themselves more frequently than women. What is also unsaid is that a significant and large effect would be seen as sign of psychiatric illness: people with anorexia have a higher death rate than psychosis and depression a higher rate than the general population: to give NZ numbers, the women die at the rate of five per hundred thousand from suicide, men and 15 -20 per 100 000, and psychiatric patients at around 150 / 100 000. — and odds ratio (OR)of around 10. In this meta analysis, the OR is 2.

Our systematic review shows that sexual orientation is significantly associated with suicide attempts, based on meta-analysis of longitudinal studies. Nevertheless, not enough studies were found to associate sexual orientation with suicide. Sexual minority men were more likely to make suicide attempts than heterosexual men. Among women, a similar association was found but it did not reach statistical significance, probably owing to the small number of studies assessed. Few studies were found evaluating risk factors for either suicide attempts or suicide among LGB populations. Further research assessing specific risk factors is needed.

The British Journal of Psychiatry Aug 2017, 211 (2) 77-87

This is significant but would argue against causality. I would look for confounding issues. But that will not satisfy the current ideology. Homophobia must be one with vaping.

In terms of future research needs, Miranda-Mendizábal et al clarify that studies mainly reported suicide attempts with only one study reporting data on completed suicide.10 Therefore further research is needed to assess the association between sexual orientation and completed suicide in young people. There is also a dearth of research on risk factors associated with suicidal behaviour in LGBT youth. For example, it is important to explore whether the risk factor profile for suicidal behaviour in the general population differs from that of LGBT youth.

Evidence is still limited on protective factors and preventive strategies to reduce risk of suicidal behaviour in LGBT youth. There is an emerging evidence base that suggests a positive school environment where there is support available for LGBT students (such as gay-straight alliance groups, policies prohibiting homophobia) is associated with positive outcomes such as reduced suicidal ideation and suicide attempts.

The British Journal of Psychiatry Aug 2017, 211 (2) 63-64

Watch this space. The evidence that supports homophobia’s existence, outside of Muslim enclaves, is not that documented (which brings us to another silence, it is not the Christians who preach death to the gays). The effect of this on the higher suicide rate is uncertain. The effectiveness of anti homophobia campaigns is uncertain.

The trouble is that every suicide is a tragedy, and in a perfect world we would have a zero suicides. But in this fallen world, suicides happen, and it is very hard to predict or prevent them.

But they are so politically useful for the narrative of this time. Expect more banning. Expect mandatory praise for this lifestyle. And expect society to ignore the underlying atomisation and anomie which have been noted to correlate with suicide since Durkheim’s Victorian studies.