I may be making an artificial distinction here, but I think it does flow from the text. A person with discernment can look at the weather and get indoors before it rains: this is a skill — one that needs to be taught to every party that goes into the high country — so that you have your wet weather gear on when it rains, and you have set up camp when it clags in and you cannot see four feet ahead due to the whiteout.

Particularly in the mountains, for there is a 100 foot drop off the side of the trail.

In the same way, an observer can predict what will, in general, happen. But that is not a sign. That is not miraculous. And this generation is wicked: it will ignore the normal warnings.

Matthew 16:1-12

¹The Pharisees and Sadducees came, and to test Jesus they asked him to show them a sign from heaven. ²He answered them, “When it is evening, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.’ ³And in the morning, ‘It will be stormy today, for the sky is red and threatening.’ You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times. ⁴An evil and adulterous generation asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of Jonah.” Then he left them and went away.

⁵When the disciples reached the other side, they had forgotten to bring any bread. ⁶Jesus said to them, “Watch out, and beware of the yeast of the Pharisees and Sadducees.” ⁷They said to one another, “It is because we have brought no bread.” ⁸And becoming aware of it, Jesus said, “You of little faith, why are you talking about having no bread? ⁹Do you still not perceive? Do you not remember the five loaves for the five thousand, and how many baskets you gathered? ¹⁰Or the seven loaves for the four thousand, and how many baskets you gathered? ¹¹How could you fail to perceive that I was not speaking about bread? Beware of the yeast of the Pharisees and Sadducees!” ¹²Then they understood that he had not told them to beware of the yeast of bread, but of the teaching of the Pharisees and Sadducees.

Jesus is the master of the image, the metaphor. He could have been a poet: he could have made you weep with this. Jonah was a prophet. He was a sign. His preaching saved Ninevah. But he was buried in the sea for three days. Jesus is pointing to his death as a sign.

But Jesus is more than a prophet. And he warns us against getting over spiritual, and looking for a sign in all things, saying to ourselves that the spirit told us to do this, or that: he warns us not to pretend to be what we are not.

Prophets exist. They are men of courage: and like men of courage, those who go into the dark realm to fight, there are casualties. And there are errors. Adrian says this on the subject:

There are many dangers of prophecy. One example of this is foolish prophecy, which is really nothing more than wishful thinking. It might surprise you to hear me say this, but sometimes it can be a bad idea for a small group of friends to gather and try to hear God for each other. Unfortunately, what often happens is what you wish God would say to that person is then what you think you hear God saying to that person. So we need to be careful about this.

Prophecy is particularly dangerous in the key areas of life. There is so much risk in and so much damage has been done in God’s name by unwise, unsafe prophecy. We should avoid, in almost every case, what I call “hatch, match, or dispatch” prophesies. What’s a “hatch” prophesy? A “hatch” prophesy is when you go up to a lady and say, “I really believe God is going to give you a baby.” Not wise. A “match” prophesy is, “I think you two should get married,” or worse still, when a guy goes to a girl and says, “God has told me that we’re going to get married.” Not wise. The girl might well reply, “Well, he hasn’t told me!” “Dispatch” prophesies are about predicting death—not good. But just as dangerous also are those prophecies where someone has a fatal illness and a foolish person says, “I really feel God has said you’re going to be healed.” Not helpful—it can be very dangerous. Avoid sharing these kinds of prophecy like the plague.

Prophecy can be misleading, and very damaging in foolish hands. Lives can be destroyed by the response of someone to a careless word. In fact, because of this risk, I can understand why at various points throughout history the cry has gone up, “Ban it!” But the Bible does not allow us to do that.

Because of the dangers of prophecy, I would encourage you, if you do have a prophetic word for someone, have a witness present to confirm or correct what is being said, and to relieve any pressure that the person might feel. It’s very wise to say things like, “Well, I need you to weight this.” “Please check this with your pastor.” “Does this make any sense to you?” Sometimes people deliver a prophetic word and they say, “Does that make any sense?” And the answer is “No.” “What do you mean, it doesn’t make any sense? It was God, wasn’t it?” Well, not necessarily.

How do we recognize true prophecy then? 1 Thessalonians 5:20-21 [Open in Logos Bible Software (if available)] says this: “Do not despise prophesying.” Unfortunately, many of us, having seen some of the excesses and some of the craziness that has gone on in the name of a so-called prophet, despise prophesying. Don’t despise prophesying, “but test everything, holding fast to the good.” I like that, because, to me, one of the things he seems to be saying is, “Don’t get too worried about the bad.” Obviously we reject the bad, but maybe the issue here is not necessarily pointing out everything that’s wrong in a prophecy, but just letting some of that just pass us by and honing in on and holding fast to the good. It is not the prophet who we test; rather it is the prophetic words. A powerful word can sometimes come from a new Christian. Equally, however, no word is true simply because it came from someone who has a good track record of hearing from God.

[In another part of the series, John Piper says that it seems that prophecy in the NT has less power than the OT. I think he is wrong: there are two clear tests for true prophets in the OT: the prophecy has to come true, and the prophet must not lead the people astray from God. The books of prophets are scripture, true, but they were not the only prophets in Israel, and these are the “best and most chosen” from a 700 — 1000 year period. Prophecy has not changed: what has changed is that Christ has come, and the Holy Spirit is alive in the church]

Despising prophecy is an error, but so is relying on a sign for everything. God gave us intelligence for a reason. He gave us his word to guide us, and he placed us where we are. It does not matter if you are in a short placement — to that rural hospital for three months, on that conference, or into the field — you have to accept that you are there for a reason, and use your intelligence to warn, to predict, to intervene. There may not be a sign: prophets, true prophecy, is rare.

And finally, do not confuse prediction with prophecy. I’m no prophet, but at times I do feel like Eliot’s Prufrock, which is again a metaphor, a poem, and without authority.

But though I have wept and fasted, wept and prayed,
Though I have seen my head (grown slightly bald) brought in upon a platter,
I am no prophet–and here’s no great matter;
I have seen the moment of my greatness flicker,
And I have seen the eternal Footman hold my coat, and snicker,
And in short, I was afraid.

Prediction, metaphor and poetry have their place. With wisdom, they can guide. Prophecy… that is a different thing: it is like juggling unstable explosives, and I lack that level of courage.