Tag Archives: evidence

The occasional note about research, journalism and public policy.

Graph of the week.

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When one is writing lectures, you find some interesting data. This graph shows the risk of using or having used alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and cocaine among those who use these substances across a number of countries.

What this shows is… and allowing for the difficulties in methodology in any survey (where you rely completely on self report)

  • Most people who use alcohol, cannabis and tobacco start using these in their late teens.
  • People start using cocaine a little later.
  • It does not seem to matter which country you are in. The curves for each nation overlap each other.

The full paper is freely available.

There are effective treatments for trauma.

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One of the good things about the Cochrane review is that it is available to the public, and the summaries are written in fairly plain English.

This review of psychological treatments for PTSD — which is the rubric under many people are treated by ACC has this summary.

Psychological treatment of post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)

This review concerns the efficacy of psychological treatment in the treatment of PTSD. There is evidence that individual trauma focused cognitive-behavioural therapy (TFCBT), eye movement desensitisation and reprocessing (EMDR), stress management and group TFCBT are effective in the treatment of PTSD. Other non-trauma focused psychological treatments did not reduce PTSD symptoms as significantly. There is some evidence that individual TFCBT and EMDR are superior to stress management in the treatment of PTSD at between 2 and 5 months following treatment, and also that TFCBT, EMDR and stress management are more effective than other therapies. There is insufficient evidence to show whether or not psychological treatment is harmful. Trauma focused cognitive behavioural therapy or eye movement desensitisation and reprocessing should be considered in individuals with PTSD. Psychological treatments can reduce symptoms of post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Trauma focused treatments are more effective than non-trauma focused treatments.

via Psychological treatment of chronic post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

Now, this is much more specific than counselling. There are treatments that add more than the effect empathic listening has.

Pity ACC does not insist on them.

Neo-pragmatists.

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Just finished a long discussion with the teen. One of his main mates is a socialist. His zeal for the received wisdom of his father (who had a minor role in the last, corrupt, leftist government) means that he tries to challenge my son’s fairly stauch reformed faith. When he starts to lose an argument, he begins to throw insults around.

So we talked about logic. Errors. Challenging assumptions. False means of logic, such as arguing against the person, appealing to emotion. The use of the scientific method.

Anyway, this lad has grown up around computers. He likes them, for gaming. Which is a social activity among his peers. But he sees no need for texting.  Facebook, in his mind, is just a gaming platform.

He prefers real life. The preliminary results from this study were reported in Der Speigel. I appears he is not alone.

Case studies on selected platforms, focus groups and individual interviews with young users, and a representative survey about Web 2.0 use, in contrast to other media types, will give a comprehensive picture of the current status of the Internet among young people.

The findings from the various empirical steps as well as the review of the current status of international research are being discussed and connected to perspectives from sociology of communication, youth studies and legal studies. In this way, the need for action and the options in the areas of public communication, identity formation, media competences and media regulation can be formulated. Design and procedure of the empirical elements are closely connected to other specialised studies on media and young people both in Germany and abroad.

In an accompanying weblog (www.hans-bredow-institut.de/webzweinull) provisional findings and related research are documented and discussed.

via Young People and Web 2.0 | Hans-Bredow-Institut.

There is a link to the results, but my German is non-existent. But… it may be, if this is right, that internet addiction is just a fad

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Gayness?

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I am trying to report most days on something I find of interest in the scholarly literature, in part to balance the theology. There are rules to this. The paper has to be publicly accessible, and it has to be an area I know something about. Recently I was working with a colleague who reported that there was increased adversity in childhood in those who had sex with people of the same Gender. This paper caused distress to a extremely careful and precise woman who would and did go out of her way to avoid offence.

Her paper is available at your local library. This paper is out on the web. The authors decided to survey six practices in Sydney that had a high proportion of Gay men on their lists. They found that the GPs were missing some cases…

Of the 704 men for whom we had data on all three measures, there was agreement among all three measures in the assessment of depression for 99 men (14.1%). In particular, the agreement between GP clinical diagnosis and the PHQ-9 screen for major depression was moderately high (Cohen’s ? = 0.48;). There was also agreement between the three measures that 385 men (54.7%) did not have major depression. Using the PHQ-9 screening results as the standard, the psychometric properties of the GP diagnosis of current depression were: sensitivity 64.4%; specificity 84.7%; positive predictive value 59.2%; and negative predictive value 87.4%
When grouped by patients’ self-reported HIV-status, the two DSM-IV-based measures indicated that the HIV-positive men had the highest rates of major depression, at over 30%. Across all three HIV-status categories, the overall rates of clinical depression identified by the participating GPs closely corresponded with the overall rates of major depression as measured by the PHQ-9 screening tool and with the overall rates of depression as reported by the patients themselves.
With regard to self-reported sexual identification, the two DSM-IV-based measures revealed that men who regarded themselves as neither gay/homosexual nor heterosexual had the highest rates of major depression, at over 40%
I used to work in a community mental health team in Ponsonby. I had a number of Gay clients — mainly male. The amount of psychological pain that many of these men had suffered, in their earlier life (many of them had been teenagers and adults before homosexuality was legalised in New Zealand) was much, much higher than straight men — and I see a straight man who is suicidal because his partner has left with the kids at least once a week.
I can believe these papers, from what I have seen. And the sooner that the Gay Rights Activitsts start talking about the mental health needs — including recovery from violence — among men who love men, the better.

Fiat currencies, Fiat quality.

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THe entire article is worth reading, but the analogy that the greenback has been mismanaged — to the point it is valueless. I would much rather by a fiat 500 than a chrysler 500 — it is smaller, more stylish, cheaper and will hold onto its value.

The question is what will be the next reserve currency. I do not think the euro or the pound are candidates — the euro because of the comprimises the Germans have to make and the Pound because Brown has mismanaged it.

And the mandarins have only had their act together around the rembi in the last few years.

But I’d be short on the US dollar.

In ancient times, the solidus circulated far and wide. But it was a tangible thing, a gold coin struck by the Byzantine Empire. Between Waterloo and the Great Depression, the pound sterling ruled the roost. But it was convertible into gold—slip your bank notes through a teller's window and the Bank of England would return the appropriate number of gold sovereigns. The dollar is faith-based. There's nothing behind it but Congress.

But now the world is losing faith, as well it might. It's not that the dollar is overvalued—economists at Deutsche Bank estimate it's 20% too cheap against the euro. The problem lies with its management. The greenback is a glorious old brand that's looking more and more like General Motors.

You get the strong impression that Mr. Bernanke fails to appreciate the tenuousness of the situation—fails to understand that the pure paper dollar is a contrivance only 38 years old, brand new, really, and that the experiment may yet come to naught. Indeed, history and mathematics agree that it will certainly come to naught. Paper currencies are wasting assets. In time, they lose all their value. Persistent inflation at even seemingly trifling amounts adds up over the course of half a century. Before you know it, that bill in your wallet won't buy a pack of gum.

via James Grant Mourns the Loss of the Gold Standard – WSJ.com.

- Bishop Hill blog – The Yamal implosion

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IThe black line is a corrected version of the standard tree data set. The set is now open. The tree cores were selected. Data points were left out. The data was reconstructed and further data added. That is the black line. There is no evidence of a temperature change. GCS may be false. and peer review did not pick it.

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Serotonin, adversity and cortisol matter.

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Serotonin transporter genotype, morning cortisol and subsequent depression in adolescents

ABSTRACT

Background

The short (s) allele of the serotonin transporter gene promoter (5-HTTLPR) may be associated with exposure to social adversities and the subsequent onset of depressive illness in adulthood.

Aims

To test in adolescents at high risk for depression whether the short ‘s’ allele is associated with levels of morning cortisol and the subsequent onset of a depressive episode.

Method

High-risk adolescents (n = 403) were genotyped for 5-HTTLPR. Salivary samples were obtained on four consecutive school days within 1 h of waking from 393 (97.5%) individuals and 367 (91%) underwent a mental state reassessment at 12 months.42f1c

Results

Multilevel analysis revealed higher levels of salivary cortisol in short allele carriers (s/s>s/l>l/l). A subsequent episode of depression was increased in those with higher cortisol and the ‘s’ allele, and independently by depressive symptoms at entry, in both genders.43f2c

Conclusions

The short allele of 5-HTTLPR may moderate the association between morning cortisol and the subsequent onset of a depressive episode.

Midwife barred over risk to clients – Health – NZ Herald News

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The health practitioners act worked well here, and I think the midwifery council should be congratulated on the way they handled this.

Ms Naidu, an independent midwife, was not alleged to have contributed to the baby’s death, but she was said to have omitted fundamental checks and failed to recognise something was wrong with the pregnancy.

The tribunal ordered her to do Midwifery Council-directed training and be supervised for 18 months. Her caseload was restricted to 50 births for a year and for the following six months to a level to be set by the council.

Council registrar Susan Yorke said yesterday that through Ms Naidu’s supervision and competency programme, “it became clear she posed a risk of harm to the public”.

(go read the whole article)

“The public is protected sufficiently by the fact that she has been suspended. The public doesn’t need to know the reasons for it and we don’t disclose that; certainly we wouldn’t disclose that unless the midwife agreed.”

Ms Yorke said Ms Naidu must satisfy the council she had the competency required of a new-graduate midwife before the suspension could be lifted. The suspension would continue until she met the council’s requirements.

Mrs Hussein’s husband and Anket’s father, Davinder Singh, said from Britain, where the family now live, that Ms Naidu’s suspension showed the health-complaints system was working well. “It’s a great outcome for the public of New Zealand.

“This has reinforced my belief in the policies and processes.”

via Midwife barred over risk to clients – Health – NZ Herald News.

Childbirth is risky. Things can and do go wrong. In this, as in other branches of medicine, the use of peer review, audit, and in particular discussion in detail of mortality and morbidity is very important.

We are all human, and we can make mistakes. So I think getting Ms Naidu supervised and monitored clesely was a good first move, but then (and this is where I think the council should be congratulated when it was clear she was below standard they stopped her from working. If you do this as a supervisor you can end up in all sorts of grief, but Ms Naidu’s supervisors did their duty.

Good on them, and good on the council for acting on their report. One hopes that Ms Naidu will get up to standard, but it is clear that she will not be allowed to work until she gets there.

Boycott Target.

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I don’t like Target. I think it is sensational.

I’m also aware that business thrive on reputations. In the food trade, it only takes ONE bad review to undo a mountain of work.

This week TV3 released a statement on behalf of production company Top Shelf Productions admitting food samples from the cafes were incorrectly coded and they were unable to confirm which one had produced the contaminated food.

The statement said the employee in charge of labelling the samples had been sacked.

Cafe Cezanne owners Rod Williams and Jackie Wilkinson said the “unbelievable” mistake had ruined their once-thriving business and they had taken legal advice on their next step.

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“If it carries on this way we are going to go bankrupt,” Williams said.

“Our meals are quite reasonably priced and we go for volume in our cafe, but things have been so much quieter.

“We are pretty disappointed and our staff are very upset by everything.”

The cafe received an A grade rating during a food and safety inspection by the Auckland City Council last month.

Both owners said the mistake was unforgivable and wanted to know more about how it had happened.

Wilkinson said they contacted Target before the show aired to say there was a mistake with the food sample.

“We knew there were a few errors in their facts but they went ahead anyway and we have noticed a serious downturn in clientele since then,” she said. “Then they come out with an apology but it’s too late. It’s shocking

via Cafe ruined by Target’s false slur – National – NZ Herald News.

I don’t live in Auckland. I used to: I’ve also worked in Ponsonby, where the main road is basically a series of cafes. People can go elsewhere. Reputation is everything: of course this applies to TV3 as well.

I suggest people should boycott Target until they make good to this firm.

India’s Romeo and Juliet tragedy

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The Indian police has charged the village council with abetting suicide after a couple suicided rather than divorce. The problem? They married.

These ancient traditions need to be rooted out.

She was a lovely girl, very innocent and always used to read the Koran. God knows what madness prompted her to run away with that boy. We’re all very sad at what happened.”

It was obvious I was going to get little more out of the family so we left and headed to the office of the local policeman for a little more clarity.

“We got to hear about the incident and decided to act,” said police superintendent Sharad Sachan.

“The young couple were legally married and therefore entitled to live together. Their parents and the villagers had no right to put pressure on them and force them to commit suicide. They are guilty of a crime and we will do all we can to build a case against them.”

As we headed back to Delhi, it was clear that with a wall of secrecy descending around the whole incident, the police were going to have their work cut out.

They may have the law on their side but the villagers are defending ancient codes and traditions that remain untouched by modernity. And they will fight to keep it that way

via BBC NEWS | South Asia | India’s Romeo and Juliet tragedy.