There is an old expression: amateur military historias look at personalities and tactics, but professionals study logistics. In seeing where things are going, it’s generally a good idea to look at the policies around credit creation and demographics.

There is a generation of young men, who are coming to age with limited prospects — of marraige, of economic stability, and they want things to change. Many of these men are Muslim, and they are rebelling, in Malaysia as well as Libya. However, as the US starts to retreat from it’s empire (because they are rapidly going bankrupt) the issue of Libya is less important, than fixing the broken budget. Now the democrats in the Senate are proposing to save Obamacare by taxing the rich by another 2 billion and defence cuts. In doing this they are implicitly admitting, as Clement Atlee did in the late 1940s, that they cannot sustain an empire.

They are engineering another US defeat, regardless of the position on the ground. They have tried a stimulus and wasted the money. Leftists economists with some competence would argue that you use the dollars you borrow or create to build infrastructure. Instead, the money has gone to the entitled and the connected. America has functioned as if it was a corrupt state somewhere in the Congo.

Locally, the leftists are not much better. Labour has been caught using MPs funds to promote the election — against all the mailing rules. Like the democrats, they are trying to increase taxes in a depression — by bringing in a capital gains tax, but not doing their sums..

But there is very little money. In the UK, retailers are closing, and cannot get credit to stock shops for the Christmas season. And Americans are coping by using… more debt. This is nuts.

In New Zealand, we could not afford a big stiumulus. The cupboard was bare. We have borrowed to sustain social spending and whenever there has been an attempt to get kiwis to spend… nothing happens. We are all paying down debt.  In addition, a fair amount of the second biggest city — Christchurch — has been condemned and the inhabitants need to be settled.

Housing prices are still around 300 000 — 400 000 for a middle class three bedroom house: which, given that the average wage is below 50 000, that the housing prices are not sustainable and there will be further loss of value.

If is the wrong time to be increasing taxes. However, it is a good time to cut the size of government to the minimum. Leaving the issues of social transfer aside for a minute (I think there should be a minimum safety net, driven my no minimum wage and no income tax until you are maiking 75% of the average wage) Therer are various busybodies we can easily remove.

• Human rights tribunals.
• Advocacy agencies., such as the ministry for women, Maori affairs, environment etc. The state has no issue as to dictating what legal activity a person usee their land for.
• Most, if not all, regulatory bodies — can and sbould be done locally
• Support for the arts — can be done locally.
• Schooling — should be done locally.
• Regulation of qualifications — can be funded by schools or universities. By examination fees.

If you cut the regulatory burden back. generally the economy improves, people get employment, and when they are secure, settle and breed. But if that is not in place, the regulations are inconsistent or being married is too high risk, that does not happen.

And that leads to demographic collapse, which reinforces economic collapse

Because we make our living out of growing food.