Monthly Archives: December 2009

New Year’s Resolutions – matter

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I normally do not make resolutions or goals. My non resolution resolution may not be smart. Full article is worth reading.

But those discouraging statistics mask an important truth: The simple act of making a New Year’s resolution sharply improves your chances of accomplishing a positive change—by a factor of 10. Among those people who make resolutions in a typical year, 46% keep them for at least six months. That compares with only 4% of a comparable group of people who wanted to make specific changes and thought about doing so, but stopped short of making an actual resolution, says a 2002 study of 282 people, led by Dr. Norcross and published in the Journal of Clinical Psychology.

via How to Keep Your New Year’s Resolutions – WSJ.com.

This piqued my curiosity. Let’s look at the abstract: which does fairly accurately summarise the survey.

Auld lang Syne: Success predictors, change processes, and self-reported outcomes of New Year’s resolvers and nonresolvers
John C. Norcross, Marci S. Mrykalo, Matthew D. Blagys
University of Scranton

Abstract

New Year’s resolvers (n = 159) and comparable nonresolvers interested in changing a problem later (n = 123) were followed for six months via telephone interviews to determine their self-reported outcomes, predictors of success, and change processes. The two groups did not differ in terms of demographic characteristics, problem histories, or behavioral goals (weight loss, exercise program, and smoking cessation being the most prevalent). Resolvers reported higher rates of success than nonresolvers; at six months, 46% of the resolvers were continuously successful compared to 4% of the nonresolvers. Self-efficacy, skills to change, and readiness to change assessed before January 1 all predicted positive outcome for resolvers. Once into the new year, successful resolvers employed more cognitive-behavioral processes but fewer awareness-generating and emotion-enhancing processes than nonsuccessful resolvers. Discussion centers on the research and intervention opportunities afforded by the annual tradition of resolutions. ©  J Clin Psychol 2002 58: 397-405, 2002

I needed to login to the uni to read the paper. It is not publically available. Like all papers, it has weaknesses:

  • Telephone survey: many people say no. No evidence of response rate. It is very, very hard to publish nowadays without this piece of data — and it is very hard to get an acceptable response rate in areas close to academic centres because people are “surveyed out”.
  • Mainly white, Pennsylvianians. They may make more New Year’s resolutions than surly New Zealanders.
  • Completely self report and self assessment of success. This is less of a problem than one would think as most people are fairly consistent in the level of distortion of their habits they accept.

However… to make a change.

  • Set a goal.
  • Small achievable changes.
  • Accept setbacks and get on program. Falling off the wagon is a chance to learn what mistake you made, not a sign you are unable to do this.
  • Emotions are less important than a plan….

I better, therefore, set some goals

Is aviation security mostly for show? – CNN.com

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This guy is an expert on security. He discusses security theatre: the need for checks — and the intrusion into ordinary life. This theatre is a form of petty tryanny, and like all tyrannies, it should be resisted.

Once a society starts circumventing its own laws, the risks to its future stability are much greater than terrorism.

Despite fearful rhetoric to the contrary, terrorism is not a transcendent threat. A terrorist attack cannot possibly destroy a country's way of life; it's only our reaction to that attack that can do that kind of damage. The more we undermine our own laws, the more we convert our buildings into fortresses, the more we reduce the freedoms and liberties at the foundation of our societies, the more we're doing the terrorists' job for them.

Today, we can project indomitability by rolling back all the fear-based post-9/11 security measures. Our leaders have lost credibility; getting it back requires a decrease in hyperbole. Ditch the invasive mass surveillance systems and new police state-like powers. Return airport security to pre-9/11 levels. Remove swagger from our foreign policies. Show the world that our legal system is up to the challenge of terrorism. Stop telling people to report all suspicious activity; it does little but make us suspicious of each other, increasing both fear and helplessness.

via Is aviation security mostly for show? – CNN.com.

So, can we please have our fluids back? Our laptops in our bags? And can we carry multitools?

In the end, stopping terror is the duty of all free people. The police do not have a monopoly on providing safety. The civilian who stops fires because he or she is the person closest needs commendation, not to be told they violated some obscure health and safety rule

Hat tip Slashdot.

The left will not be stupid forever.

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Mike Moore on his old colleagues. Who truly don;t get it.

Phil Goff has the worst job in politics; trying to rebuild an opposition party. This is hard because many around him believe that the people just wanted new faces and it was a failure of public relations that put Labour out. He is pressured by stern faces, who look like they have been in a wind tunnel too long. When Maori under-achievement is put on the agenda they will argue that the subject title is racist and dodge the substance. They are addicted to self-righteous slogans and comfortable cliches. It's easier to pontificate about other people's dietary habits and carbon footprints. One told a devout Pacific Islander that God is dog spelt backwards. They don’t get it. Once they were warriors – now they are worriers.

via Mike Moore: Political year of fits, follies and foibles – page 2 – Politics – NZ Herald News.

The problem for the left is that Goff does get it. He is trying to move the party towards the old labour voter — socially fairly conservative but fair minded, but wanting some redistribution. But not a priveledged group who get more than a fair go.

Goff has done the math. There are not enough academics, teachers, and staunch radicals. The radicals are off making a new left party. Helen destroyed the social democrat consensus that was already sick courtesy of the previous labour government and Muldoon. The only place to go is into the centre. To do this — if I was Phil — I would.

  • Oppose the ETA and Copenhagen, as the rules will oppress the poor.
  • Encourage unions to opt out of the state provision of education and health. The Tories are going to be in power for at least another 5 years, so do what the first Labour government did — work with the workers.
  • Decrease the burden on employers of red tape — go on a quango hunt, and cut down the rules. Out Nat the Nats here, because most employees work for small companies. Talk to the unions about how to work some kind of German style partnership around this.
  • Do not allow into parliament any person who cannot hold their own in a smoko room.

As a Tory, I hope he does none of the above

No point continuing to run deficits

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If Bill English runs deficits over the next year to stumulate the economy he willbe contradicting the Rsereve Bank.

The economy technically pulled out of recession in the second quarter, snapping a five-quarter streak of contractions and the longest downturn since the recession caused by the first oil shock in the mid-1970s.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the official cash rate at 2.5% but signaled it would start raising interest rates in mid-2010 rather than the previous guidance of the second half of 2010 if the economy continues to recover. The central bank had expected the economy to expand 0.4% in the third quarter.

via HeadlineText – WSJ.com.

Four banks to pay IRD $2.2bn – Business – NZ Herald News

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This is sort of good news. TheIRD won on wht`at looks to have been a comlicated tax issue.It would be interesting to see what Cactus Kate says: this is her area.

As a mere research clinician, If I can’t explain it back to my advisor and show you how it works on the back of an  envelope, I don’t understand it and should not be involved.

More inetersting is that we needed this windfall to go into surplus. We need to be balancing our budget — even if you are a Keynsian (I’m not) then we are moving into recovery and stimulus is not needed.

lancing the books New Zealand's big four Australian-owned banks and the Inland Revenue Department have announced a settlement of their disputes over structured finance deals that involves the banks paying the government a gross NZ$2.2 billion.This represents 80 per cent of the amounts owed by the banks and is the largest commercial settlement with the IRD in its history. Updated with comment from ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Westpac and the IRDThe settlement follows years of legal fights and two high court rulings in favour of the IRD. The banks will not pay penalties and the full details of the settlement are confidential, although they are paying 80 per cent of the total tax owed plus interest. The amount was enough to boost New Zealand's current account into a surplus in the September quarter for the first time in almost 21 years.

via Four banks to pay IRD $2.2bn – Business – NZ Herald News.

The incarnation is offensive #2: Progressive Irrationality

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Matthew Flannigan rips into the high temple of liberalism in Auckland. Progressive (read liberal) Christians are offended by belief. They are puizzled as to why there are so many trained thinkers in orthodox churches and so few in theirs. As Matthew says:

Note two things here, first Cardy clearly caricatures the “literal conception story” yet mainstream Christendom, who believes this story, do not hold that God is literally a man and that he had sex with Mary. God in traditional theology is immaterial, he has no sex organs and the story of a virginal conception is just that, a virginal conception. Cardy, of course, being theologically trained, knows this. Second, Cardy on calling for “debate” means that people who hold orthodox Christian views “needs to be laughed at.” So Cardy’s understanding of theological debate apparently involves deliberately distorting and caricaturing the views of other people and then responding, not with reasoned argument, but ridicule.

St Matthews on the Terrace: Progressive Irrationality.

If God is a God worth worshiping, his care for us is shown by his intervention in our situation. This required three miracles — that he would be a man, that he would die, and that he would be resurrected. We celebrate the first of these on Saturday.

The offense of belief

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The incarnation is offensive. It goes against the grain. A woman does not get pregnant without intercourse — of some nature (I guess nowdays we have to include artificial insemination).

In this, no babe is a mistake, for by having intercourse one chooses to accept that a babe may be born (contraceptives markedly decrease the risk. They do not remove it).

Mary’s first comment — how can this be? only makes sense if she HAS not had intercourse. She was planning to marry — and probably have children — after that. To be pregnant unwed was more than a scandal — the local fanatics could (as still occurs in some Muslim areas) execute you.

Mary is not condemned for using reason, and asking questions. Our assent is not blind to the will of God. She coose to take this risk in obedience to what had been said. For this, she is honoured. The incarnation is a miracle, and the church fathers wisely chose to discuss this for four weeks before Christmas.

Luke 1:26-3826

In the sixth month the angel Gabriel was sent by God to a town in Galilee called Nazareth, 27to a virgin engaged to a man whose name was Joseph, of the house of David. The virgin's name was Mary. 28And he came to her and said, “Greetings, favored one! The Lord is with you.” 29But she was much perplexed by his words and pondered what sort of greeting this might be. 30The angel said to her, “Do not be afraid, Mary, for you have found favor with God. 31And now, you will conceive in your womb and bear a son, and you will name him Jesus. 32He will be great, and will be called the Son of the Most High, and the Lord God will give to him the throne of his ancestor David. 33He will reign over the house of Jacob forever, and of his kingdom there will be no end.” 34Mary said to the angel, “How can this be, since I am a virgin?” 35The angel said to her, “The Holy Spirit will come upon you, and the power of the Most High will overshadow you; therefore the child to be born will be holy; he will be called Son of God. 36And now, your relative Elizabeth in her old age has also conceived a son; and this is the sixth month for her who was said to be barren. 37For nothing will be impossible with God.” 38Then Mary said, “Here am I, the servant of the Lord; let it be with me according to your word.” Then the angel departed from her.

via PCUSA – Devotions – Daily readings for Sunday, December 20, 2009.

So what is the offense? Is it that the idea of an interventionist God scares us? For if God intervenes — if he cares — then we will be held to account. If he chooses not to intervene, then we have to work out why.

But if God does not intervene, there is not means to obtain mercy: there is no hope when evil triumphs, and there is no meaning in the practice of holiness. We are left in the dark, blind. And we are making up myths so we have meaning.

Let us honour Mary, for her courage allowed there to be incarnation, and let us celebrate Christmas.

Underweight the US

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The US soveriegn debt is unstable. Their gamble in finacial shares is not working. THe market is decresing the value across the board.

Normally, time to buy, but with the corrent US policies, rthe risk of snstability is too high.

The declines in the financial sector came after investors demanded a price so low for Citigroup's secondary share offering that the U.S. government shelved plans to trim its 34% stake in Citigroup, as the Treasury Department would have lost money on the deal. Citigroup, which is not a Dow component, was down 6.4%.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 1%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index declined 0.9%, led by its materials and financial sectors.

The declines in the materials sector came as futures in gold and other metals fell. Crude-oil futures also declined, while the dollar and Treasurys climbed as investors moved toward safer areas of the market. The U.S. Dollar Index, which represents the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, gained 1%.

via Stocks Fall, Led by Financials – WSJ.com.

Gospel in one paragraph

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John 3. Gospel in about one paragraph.

17″Indeed, God did not send the Son into the world to condemn the world, but in order that the world might be saved through him. 18Those who believe in him are not condemned; but those who do not believe are condemned already, because they have not believed in the name of the only Son of God. 19And this is the judgment, that the light has come into the world, and people loved darkness rather than light because their deeds were evil. 20For all who do evil hate the light and do not come to the light, so that their deeds may not be exposed. 21But those who do what is true come to the light, so that it may be clearly seen that their deeds have been done in God.”

via PCUSA – Devotions – Daily readings for Friday, December 18, 2009.