There used to be a traditional life narrative in most societies. It has been distorted, and I’m putting the distortions in brackets.
- Finish schooling [Which now requires a Masters in fields that used to require a High School Diploma]
- Stay a virgin until you marry, on graduation. [Have multiple liaisons, and marry when the student loan is paid off]
- Have children early
- Remain married [Marriage is now fungible, and your growth is more important]
- Bury your parents. Play with your grandchildren. [Bury your parents. Play with your cat or dog]
- Your children and grandchildren look after you in old age, and bury you {The state encourages you to inhale a poison at eighty]
The distortions are things that make our lives less resilient and more dependant on the state. And when the storms hit society, things happen, including a decrease in birth rate.
Recessions have effects that ripple through society in broad ways that go beyond income and employment. They can affect many behaviors and decisions, including when and whether to have children. The birth rate is an important determination of population growth, and therefore an extremely important factor for economic growth. As a result, the effect on fertility has the potential to be among a recession’s most important long-run impacts on the economy.
A new study from economists Janet Currie and Hannes Schwandt provides strong empirical reasons to worry. Looking at state and cohort level birth records from 1975 to 2010, they confirm previous studies that show higher unemployment reduces birth rates in the short run. The U.S. experience during the Great Recession is consistent with this. The total fertility rate fell during the recession and bounced up slightly in 2014 for the first time since 2007.
Currie and Schwandt’s analysis shows unemployment also has a worrisome negative long-run effect. Specifically, they look at how the total fertility rate by age 40 is affected by unemployment throughout a mother’s life, comparing differences between states and over time. Their results suggest that while fertility will increase after a recession as employment recovers, there won’t be enough “catch-up” to make up the shortfall. The authors calculate among women who were 20 to 24 at the start of the Great Recession, an additional 8.9% will be childless at age 40 because of the higher unemployment. This is an increase of more than 150,000 childless women.
In starvation (may it not happen) fertility is controlled. A woman’s fat percentage will drop too far and her ovulatory cycles cease. In recession, she will be tired, she will probably be working and worried, and her confidence that a child will thrive is limited, and her desire for anyone will drop.
She will be fearful. She won’t feel loved.
A healthy society protects women: this is now called evil and a patriarchal. But a health society has hope.
And without hope of a future or a vision of a future a people turn to pleasure, and children are deemed as inconvenient. Since economists measure human activity, with less humans there is not growth but shrinkage, and an exacerbation of this long depression.
And since SJW always double down, this is deemed by them to be good.
