This started with a challenge about getting a sidekick. And an ongoing curiosity on how the NZ data stacks up with that of Dalrock’s. And since the NZ stats are now up for the year ending Dec 2011, I thought we should have a look.
If you look at the raw numbers of NZers getting married nothing seems to have moved. About the same number of people get married every year, and around the same number remarry.
But this misses the denominator. The population in NZ has increased from under three million to over four million during that time. The correct thing to do is estimate the marriage rate. You can marry, with your parent’s permission, at age 16 in NZ — this gives a parent of children that straddle that age some concern — and therefore the marriage rate is estimated on the population that can be married.
As you can see, the marriage rate has dropped from 35/1000 not married to 11/1000. Not good. And that includes those who have a second (or more) go at the institution.
Now Kiwis are marrying at greater ages. In 1982, the median age of first marriage was 24 for men and 22 for women. By 2011, it was 30 for men and 28 for women. The median age for remarriage (if divorced) has gone up a decade for both men and women — from around 34 and 37 (women and men respectively) in 1982 to 44 and 47 in 2011. Only the rate of remarriage for widows and widowers has remained stable.
Now, this has nothing to do with the rate of civil unions — an alternate way of registering your commitment — occurring in NZ.
“December
year” Same-sex Opposite-sex(2) Total
Female couples Male couples Female + male couples
| December year |
Same-sex | Opposite-sex(2) | Total | ||
| Female couples | Male couples | Female + male couples | |||
| New Zealand resident civil unions(3) | |||||
| 2005(4) | 105 | 98 | 46 | 249 | |
| 2006 | 182 | 115 | 77 | 374 | |
| 2007 | 150 | 103 | 63 | 316 | |
| 2008 | 145 | 111 | 71 | 327 | |
| 2009 | 147 | 97 | 68 | 312 | |
| 2010 | 127 | 73 | 73 | 273 | |
| 2011 | 133 | 99 | 69 | 301 | |
Many Kiwis are not single: many just live together. I know many committed couples who have neither a marriage nor a civil union, we call this a de facto marriage, but such a term does not exist outside of NZ.
And the odds of getting married are lowering by the year.
