Don’t retire.

I was born in 1960. In New Zealand, that puts me at the end of the Baby boom, which definately continued to 1965 and probably 1970: fertility did not crash until around then and families were stable during this period. Divorce began to be mentioned by my parents in the mid 1970s.

The boom started around 1943 in NZ when the first troops came back from WWII and really took off after 1949, when NZ withdrew their occupation forces from Germany and Japan. There are considerable differences for those of us at the end of the boom.

  • We started work during the late 1970s and early 1980s, when their was signficant unemployment, while those born earlier started work during times of full employment.
  • Our parents were either finishing their families or were children during WWII and the children of the depression, who had reached adulthood during the post war  period of austerity. (My parents were born during the depression). The war was not in the home for us: but the grandparents stories of the depression were.
  • The defining musical and cultural movement for me and my cohort was not Woodstock. It was Punk Rock.
  • We will not reach retirement age for another 15 years. And by then, the money will have run out.

If you look at the world graph, it is moving towards being columnar to around age 60, half being alive at 75m and a quarer making it to 85 by 2050. In the western world, if you are alive at 60, you have a 50% chance of making 80: if alive at 80, again half will make 90. Most older adults are fit and well. They can work. They need to work.

We set the retirement age at 65 in the late Victorian era — Bismark set it at an age where around three quarters of men were dead. Making 70 was a hope, not an expectation. We should be raising the retirement age to 70 now… but this is not politically acceptable. Now. However, it will happen. The pension system is currently unfunded — and most state systems are moving to some kind of individual retirement savings with minimal contribution from the taxpayer.

The most optimistic socialist can expect a slow erosion of the pensions by allowing inflation, and limiting access to health care, particularly in the last years of life. The more realistic can expect that any retirement will be self funded. The pessimistic among us can see the national retirement savings being confiscated (or forcibly invested) with the government.

The good news for my cohort is that we have time to adjust. My suggestions.

  1. Keep your job and pension scheme going. There is a chance you will lose it all, but there is a chance that is all you can have.
  2. Get debt free and stay that way.
  3. Prepare for moving to a business that is not dependent on a boss, once your kids have left home — for example, part time private work, a parallel business etc.
  4. Negotiate part time work and a new contract while you are still valued.
  5. Pay attention to your health. In the end, it is your brain that keeps you fed and paid. So deal with your chronic medical conditions. If needed, pay to see the specailist that the state will not provide.
  6. Stay married, if married. If not married, be very careful about entering any romantic partnership, married or not. You can expect the government to lower and broaden the criteria for civil partnership so that an earner will have to care for any member of their partners family after a very short period.
  7. Ensure any investment has cash flow. Negative gearing will not work for much longer.

Finally, rely on local systems — churches, friendly groups, credit unions, cooperatives. Most of the corporate systems have had to align themselves with the state and the state with the corporate systems (by regulation and legislation). If this system is damaged by default or destruction of currency, the local systems, which are less complex, will be easier to sustain.