Kiwis, your odds of marrying are decreasing

This started with a challenge about getting a sidekick. And an ongoing curiosity on how the NZ data stacks up with that of Dalrock’s. And since the NZ stats are now up for the year ending Dec 2011, I thought we should have a look.

If you look at the raw numbers of NZers getting married nothing seems to have moved. About the same number of people get married every year, and around the same number remarry.

Screenshot from 2013-03-13 18:16:01

But this misses the denominator. The population in NZ has increased from under three million to over four million during that time. The correct thing to do is estimate the marriage rate. You can marry, with your parent’s permission, at age 16 in NZ — this gives a parent of children that straddle that age some concern — and therefore the marriage rate is estimated on the population that can be married.
Screenshot from 2013-03-13 18:20:08

As you can see, the marriage rate has dropped from 35/1000 not married to 11/1000. Not good. And that includes those who have a second (or more) go at the institution.

Now Kiwis are marrying at greater ages. In 1982, the median age of first marriage was 24 for men and 22 for women. By 2011, it was 30 for men and 28 for women. The median age for remarriage (if divorced) has gone up a decade for both men and women — from around 34 and 37 (women and men respectively) in 1982 to 44 and 47 in 2011. Only the rate of remarriage for widows and widowers has remained stable.

Screenshot from 2013-03-13 18:39:09

Screenshot from 2013-03-13 18:36:35

Now, this has nothing to do with the rate of civil unions — an alternate way of registering your commitment — occurring in NZ.
“December
year” Same-sex Opposite-sex(2) Total
Female couples Male couples Female + male couples

December
year
Same-sex Opposite-sex(2) Total
Female couples Male couples Female + male couples
           
New Zealand resident civil unions(3)
           
2005(4)   105 98 46 249
2006   182 115 77 374
2007   150 103 63 316
2008   145 111 71 327
2009   147 97 68 312
2010   127 73 73 273
2011   133 99 69 301

 

Many Kiwis are not single: many just live together. I know many committed couples who have neither a marriage nor a civil union, we call this a de facto marriage, but such a term does not exist outside of NZ.

And the odds of getting married are lowering by the year.

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pukeko

Solo Dad. Calvinist. http://blog.photo.pukeko.net Photographer: manual, film and Digital. http://photo.pukeko.net.nz