Walls of flame have roared across southeastern Australia, razing scores of homes along with forests and farmland in the sunburned country’s worst wildfire disaster in a quarter century. At least 25 people died and the toll could rise to more than 40, police said.

Victoria Police Deputy Commissioner Kieran Walshe told the Nine television network that 25 deaths had been confirmed and that officials believe that number will rise further as police reach further into the fire zone.

via Death toll in Australian bushfires rises to 25 – World – NZ Herald News.

And it is getting that way here.

New Zealand isn’t quite as simple. We have 3 ingredients that we need before we can attempt to hit 40 degrees.

1) The air needs to be hot in the first place. The air moving towards New Zealand has travelled from Aussie so it’s already at a good temperature.

2) We need some nor’westers! The north’westerly flow is a very hot, dry wind flow for eastern New Zealand and gives us our best shot at hitting 40. As that air arrives along our west coast it needs to climb over the ranges – such as the Southern Alps, the Tararua Ranges and the Hawkes Bay ranges. As it rushes down the eastern side of those ranges the air starts to heat up (friction) and of course as it heats up it burns off any moisture (humidity). The drier it gets the more it heats up…so by the time it reaches those east coast towns and cities it’s bone dry and scorching hot.

3) The skies need to be clear. Thick high cloud can sometimes shave several degrees off the temperature so we need the skies to be pretty much blue.

The forecast for Sunday, especially the Canterbury region, favours all 3 ingredients but they need to all be perfectly in time – all meeting up during the peak of the heat which is mid afternoon